Bursaspor vs Somaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Turkey - 2. Lig Kırmızı - 33 Timsah Park· Bursa Sunday, April 19, 2026 12:00

Bursaspor PPG 2.56

5-1 MISS

Somaspor PPG 0.81

Home· -1.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bursaspor face Somaspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bursaspor a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Somaspor 2%, so Bursaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Bursaspor and 0.4 for Somaspor (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bursaspor are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.81 for Somaspor. This match finished 5-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 91.8%

Odds: 1.07 EV: -1.8%

Draw 6.2%

Odds: 7.40 EV: -54.1%

Away 2.0%

Odds: 21.00 EV: -58.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 75.2% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 55.3% Odds: 1.65 -8.8%

BTTS 33.9% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 4-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 5-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bursaspor

3.50

Somaspor

0.43

Model SuggestionHome -1.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-1.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.56), Away POOR (0.81) - Strong consensus