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Bursaspor vs Somaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Kırmızı - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Bursaspor

PPG 2.56 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Somaspor

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 91.8% vs bookmaker-implied 93.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-10.8%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-13.0%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.0%2-15.2%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.0%3-16.0%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-030.2%4+-113.0%4+-22.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.8% 93.5% 1.07 -1.8%

Draw 6.2% 13.5% 7.40 -54.1%

Away win 2.0% 4.8% 21.00 -58.0%

Over 2.5 75.2% — — —

Over 3.5 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

BTTS 33.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 89%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob33.9%

H 92% / xG 3.5-0.4 / O2.5 75% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 14.0%

#2 4–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 5–0 8.6%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bursaspor3.5

Somaspor0.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.2% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BURSASPOR · PPG 2.56

SOMASPOR · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.56), Away POOR (0.81) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bursaspor (H) 91.8%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -1.8%

Draw 6.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV -54.1%

Somaspor (A) 2.0%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV -58.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bursaspor face Somaspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bursaspor a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Somaspor 2%, so Bursaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Bursaspor and 0.4 for Somaspor (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bursaspor are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.81 for Somaspor. This match finished 5-1.

Bursaspor vs Somaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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