Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Iskenderun vs Elazigspor

Iskenderun vs Elazigspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Beyaz - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Iskenderun

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Elazigspor

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.3%0-27.9%0-35.0%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.3%2-16.3%2-26.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 13.3% 7.50 +83.0%

Draw 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -6.3%

Away win 53.3% 75.2% 1.33 -29.1%

Over 2.5 60.6% 57.1% 1.75 +6.0%

Over 3.5 38.3% — — —

BTTS 60.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.2%

A 53% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1✓ 8.3%

#4 0–2 7.9%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Iskenderun1.2

Elazigspor1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ISKENDERUN · PPG 2.00

ELAZIGSPOR · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Iskenderun (H) 24.4%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +83.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.3%

Elazigspor (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Iskenderun face Elazigspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Iskenderun a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Elazigspor 53%, so Elazigspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Iskenderun and 1.9 for Elazigspor (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Iskenderun are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Elazigspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +83.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Iskenderun vs Elazigspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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