Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Bucaspor vs B. Petrolspor

Bucaspor vs B. Petrolspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Beyaz - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Bucaspor

PPG 0.53 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

B. Petrolspor

PPG 2.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 89.8% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-14.9%0-29.0%0-310.9%0-4+25.8%1 1-00.9%1-13.2%1-25.9%1-37.2%1-4+16.9%2 2-00.3%2-11.0%2-21.9%2-32.3%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 3.2% 7.1% 14.00 -55.2%

Draw 7.1% 16.7% 6.00 -57.4%

Away win 89.8% 88.5% 1.13 +1.5%

Over 2.5 80.4% — — —

Over 3.5 62.5% 52.6% 1.90 +18.8%

BTTS 46.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob46.8%

A 90% / xG 0.7-3.7 / O2.5 80% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.9%

#2 0–4 10.0%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–5 7.3%

#5 1–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucaspor0.7

B. Petrolspor3.7

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.4% · O3.5 PROB 62.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCASPOR · PPG 0.53

B. PETROLSPOR · PPG 2.24

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs Home POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Bucaspor (H) 3.2%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV -55.2%

Draw 7.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -57.4%

B. Petrolspor (A) 89.8%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucaspor face B. Petrolspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucaspor a 3% chance, the draw 7% and B. Petrolspor 90%, so B. Petrolspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bucaspor and 3.7 for B. Petrolspor (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucaspor are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 2.24 for B. Petrolspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Bucaspor vs B. Petrolspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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