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Ilves II vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Ilves II

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

P-Iirot

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.5%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-16.7%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.9%4+-26.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Draw 19.3% 23.8% 4.20 -11.4%

Away win 21.7% 29.4% 3.40 -15.7%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 46.0% 57.8% 1.73 -20.4%

BTTS 63.4% 73.5% 1.36 -13.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 50.0% 2.00 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.4%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves II2.7

P-Iirot1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES II · PPG 2.22

P-IIROT · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

74%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ilves II (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +2.1%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.4%

P-Iirot (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves II face P-Iirot in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves II a 59% chance, the draw 19% and P-Iirot 22%, so Ilves II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Ilves II and 1.2 for P-Iirot (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves II are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.70 for P-Iirot. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Ilves II vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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