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River Plate Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:00

River Plate Res.

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barracas Central Res.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.91) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-15.5%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.9%1-19.6%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.3%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-14.8%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-13.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 18.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.9% — — —

Away O1.5 18.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.9%

#2 2–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate Res.1.7

Barracas Central Res.0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 1.91

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES. · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.91) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

River Plate Res. (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barracas Central Res. (A) 18.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate Res. face Barracas Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate Res. a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Barracas Central Res. 19%, so River Plate Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for River Plate Res. and 0.5 for Barracas Central Res. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate Res. are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.67 for Barracas Central Res..