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River Plate Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:00

River Plate Res.

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Barracas Central Res.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-15.4%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.6%1-19.5%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-14.9%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-13.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 71.4% 1.40 -16.8%

Draw 22.0% 26.3% 3.80 -9.8%

Away win 18.6% 14.3% 7.00 +18.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.5% 3.08 -7.0%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 63.3% 1.58 -15.5%

Away O1.5 19.1% 18.5% 5.40 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 2–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate Res.1.8

Barracas Central Res.0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 1.91

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES. · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

River Plate Res. (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.8%

Barracas Central Res. (A) 18.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate Res. face Barracas Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate Res. a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Barracas Central Res. 19%, so River Plate Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for River Plate Res. and 0.5 for Barracas Central Res. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate Res. are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.67 for Barracas Central Res.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 4-0.

River Plate Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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