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Makhachkala vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:30

Makhachkala

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Zenit

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 61% chance

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-120.6%0-214.8%0-37.1%0-4+3.5%1 1-07.2%1-110.4%1-27.5%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-01.8%2-12.6%2-21.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 15.2% 6.60 -14.2%

Draw 26.8% 27.6% 3.62 -3.0%

Away win 60.2% 60.6% 1.65 -0.7%

Over 2.5 30.8% 41.2% 2.43 -25.2%

Over 3.5 13.3% 22.7% 4.40 -41.5%

BTTS 30.3% 43.1% 2.32 -29.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob30.3%

A 60% / xG 0.5-1.4 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 20.6%

#2 0–2 14.8%

#3 0–0 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Makhachkala0.5

Zenit1.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.8% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAKHACHKALA · PPG 1.58

ZENIT · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.58), Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Makhachkala (H) 13.0%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -14.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.62 · IMPLIED 27.6% EV -3.0%

Zenit (A) 60.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Makhachkala face Zenit in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Makhachkala a 13% chance, the draw 27% and Zenit 60%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Makhachkala and 1.4 for Zenit (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Makhachkala are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.55 for Zenit. This match finished 0-1.

Makhachkala vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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