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Baltika vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:45

Baltika

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 51% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 49.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.5%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.2%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.5%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 48.8% 2.05 +9.1%

Draw 24.3% 29.2% 3.42 -10.1%

Away win 22.5% 26.2% 3.82 -8.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 49.3% 2.03 +9.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.8% 3.36 +6.2%

BTTS 52.9% 55.2% 1.81 -4.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.4% 2.11 +5.3%

Away O1.5 25.1% 30.7% 3.26 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baltika1.7

Lokomotiv0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BALTIKA · PPG 1.53

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baltika (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.42 · IMPLIED 29.2% EV -10.1%

Lokomotiv (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.82 · IMPLIED 26.2% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baltika face Lokomotiv in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baltika a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Lokomotiv 23%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Baltika and 0.9 for Lokomotiv (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baltika are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.05 for Lokomotiv. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +12.1%.

Baltika vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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