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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:15

Dinamo Makhachkala

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

UPCOMING

Rodina Moskva

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+22.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.9%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.9%1-19.8%1-25.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.0%3-16.7%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 56.5% 1.77 -2.6%

Draw 21.9% 25.4% 3.94 -8.2%

Away win 23.1% 22.2% 4.50 +2.4%

Over 2.5 62.7% 51.3% 1.95 +22.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 30.9% 3.24 +30.3%

BTTS 61.5% 54.3% 1.84 +13.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.9% 1.89 +5.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 27.6% 3.62 +20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Makhachkala2.0

Rodina Moskva1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA · PPG 1.47

RODINA MOSKVA · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Makhachkala (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -2.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -8.2%

Rodina Moskva (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Makhachkala face Rodina Moskva in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Rodina Moskva 23%, so Dinamo Makhachkala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.1 for Rodina Moskva (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.31 for Rodina Moskva. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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