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Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 16:00

Ordabasy

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.1%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.1%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.5%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 21.7% 19.0% 5.25 +8.4%

Over 2.5 54.1% 47.6% 2.10 +13.6%

Over 3.5 33.3% 27.0% 3.70 +23.2%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 56.8% 55.6% 1.80 +2.2%

Away O1.5 24.8% 23.1% 4.33 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ordabasy2.0

Yelimay Semey0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ORDABASY · PPG 2.56

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.56) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Ordabasy (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -12.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Yelimay Semey (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ordabasy face Yelimay Semey in Kazakhstan on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ordabasy a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Yelimay Semey 22%, so Ordabasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ordabasy and 0.9 for Yelimay Semey (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ordabasy are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.88 for Yelimay Semey. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

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