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Irtysh vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 14:00

Irtysh

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Astana

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.1%0-26.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.7%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.4%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 29.0% 3.45 +28.0%

Draw 27.8% 29.4% 3.40 -3.3%

Away win 35.1% 52.4% 1.91 -33.0%

Over 2.5 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 29.9% 3.35 -1.7%

BTTS 52.4% 57.1% 1.75 -8.3%

Home O1.5 35.6% 33.3% 3.00 +6.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 51.3% 1.95 -29.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.4%

A 35% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Irtysh1.1

FC Astana1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IRTYSH · PPG 0.75

FC ASTANA · PPG 0.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Irtysh (H) 37.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +28.0%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.3%

FC Astana (A) 35.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Irtysh face FC Astana in Kazakhstan on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Irtysh a 37% chance, the draw 28% and FC Astana 35%, so Irtysh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Irtysh and 1.1 for FC Astana (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Irtysh are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.50 for FC Astana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.0%.

Irtysh vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

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