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Altay vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 12:00

Altay

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aktobe

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-114.4%0-26.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.2%2-16.2%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 29.1% — — —

Over 2.5 39.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.6% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 22.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altay0.9

Aktobe0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTAY · PPG 0.89

AKTOBE · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.89) > Away POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

Altay (H) 38.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aktobe (A) 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Altay face Aktobe in Kazakhstan on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altay a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Aktobe 29%, so Altay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Altay and 0.9 for Aktobe (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altay are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.29 for Aktobe.

Altay vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

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