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MuSa vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Thursday, July 9, 2026, 16:00

MuSa

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

GrIFK

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.6%0-28.6%0-36.5%0-4+6.4%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.4%1-4+7.2%2 2-02.1%2-14.8%2-25.5%2-34.2%2-4+4.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.8%3-22.1%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -11.3%

Draw 21.8% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Away win 57.4% 58.8% 1.70 -2.4%

Over 2.5 65.5% 69.4% 1.44 -5.7%

Over 3.5 42.5% 50.0% 2.00 -15.0%

BTTS 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Away O1.5 68.2% 65.4% 1.53 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -17.9%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob62.4%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MuSa1.1

GrIFK2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSA · PPG 0.40

GRIFK · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

MuSa (H) 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

GrIFK (A) 57.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

MuSa face GrIFK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Thursday, July 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MuSa a 21% chance, the draw 22% and GrIFK 57%, so GrIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for MuSa and 2.3 for GrIFK (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MuSa are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.50 for GrIFK. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.3%.

MuSa vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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