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Honka vs HJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 15:30

Honka

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

HJS

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.9%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.5%1-15.6%1-22.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.2%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-112.8%4+-26.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 84.7% 1.18 -20.1%

Draw 17.3% 16.7% 6.00 +2.3%

Away win 15.0% 9.1% 11.00 +39.0%

Over 2.5 67.2% 78.1% 1.28 -14.0%

Over 3.5 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

BTTS 62.4% 60.6% 1.65 +3.0%

Home O1.5 75.9% 85.5% 1.17 -11.2%

Away O1.5 31.2% 24.1% 4.15 +29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.4%

H 68% / xG 3.0-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honka3.0

HJS1.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HONKA · PPG 2.20

HJS · PPG 1.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Honka (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -20.1%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +2.3%

HJS (A) 15.0%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honka face HJS in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honka a 68% chance, the draw 17% and HJS 15%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Honka and 1.0 for HJS (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honka are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.83 for HJS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.0%.

Honka vs HJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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