Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group B / Ilves B vs EPS

Ilves B vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 11:00

Ilves B

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

EPS

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.5%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.8%1-16.4%1-25.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.0%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.9%3-16.7%3-25.6%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-17.6%4+-26.4%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 65.4% 1.53 -17.2%

Draw 21.6% 23.1% 4.33 -3.9%

Away win 24.2% 23.8% 4.20 +1.0%

Over 2.5 71.4% 76.9% 1.30 -7.2%

Over 3.5 49.0% 60.6% 1.65 -19.1%

BTTS 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

Home O1.5 61.5% 73.5% 1.36 -16.4%

Away O1.5 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.1%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.7 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves B2.5

EPS1.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES B · PPG 1.75

EPS · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ilves B (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -17.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.9%

EPS (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves B face EPS in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves B a 54% chance, the draw 22% and EPS 24%, so Ilves B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Ilves B and 1.7 for EPS (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves B are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.20 for EPS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%.