Today / Changnyeong W vs Mungyeong W

Changnyeong W vs Mungyeong W Prediction

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Changnyeong W
PPG 0.17 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Mungyeong W
PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-114.0%0-210.1%0-34.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.6%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.8%2-15.5%2-24.0%2-31.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 28.3%
Draw 27.1%
Away win 44.6%
Over 2.5 49.7%
Over 3.5 28.8%
BTTS 52.8%
Home O1.5 33.7%
Away O1.5 43.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.8%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%
#2 0–1 14.0%
#3 0–0 9.7%
#4 0–2 10.1%
#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changnyeong W0.9
Mungyeong W1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 0.17

MUNGYEONG W · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Changnyeong W (H) 28.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 27.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Mungyeong W (A) 44.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Changnyeong W face Mungyeong W on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changnyeong W a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Mungyeong W 45%, so Mungyeong W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Changnyeong W and 1.4 for Mungyeong W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changnyeong W are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 2.25 for Mungyeong W.

PredictVantage

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