Today / Newcastle O. vs Charlestown A.

Newcastle O. vs Charlestown A. Prediction

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Newcastle O.

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.3%0-22.8%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.2%1-17.3%1-26.3%1-33.7%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.5%3-16.1%3-25.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.7%4+-25.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.1% — — —

Over 3.5 46.5% — — —

BTTS 64.9% — — —

Home O1.5 61.2% — — —

Away O1.5 49.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.9%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle O.2.2

Charlestown A.1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 0.50

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle O. (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Charlestown A. (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle O. face Charlestown A. on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle O. a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Charlestown A. 28%, so Newcastle O. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Newcastle O. and 1.7 for Charlestown A. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle O. are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Charlestown A..

Newcastle O. vs Charlestown A. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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