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B68 Toftir vs AB Argir Prediction— Faroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin

Matchday 15 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 17:30

B68 Toftir

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

AB Argir

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.0%0-25.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.9%1-110.0%1-28.3%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.2%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.7%3-14.5%3-23.8%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

Draw 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -11.5%

Away win 37.6% 39.2% 2.55 -4.1%

Over 2.5 64.3% 60.6% 1.65 +6.1%

Over 3.5 41.8% 38.2% 2.62 +9.5%

BTTS 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Home O1.5 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Away O1.5 49.7% 47.6% 2.10 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 35%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–0 3.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

B68 Toftir1.6

AB Argir1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

B68 TOFTIR · PPG 1.14

AB ARGIR · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

B68 Toftir (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -5.7%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.5%

AB Argir (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

B68 Toftir face AB Argir in Faroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives B68 Toftir a 39% chance, the draw 23% and AB Argir 38%, so B68 Toftir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for B68 Toftir and 1.7 for AB Argir (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, B68 Toftir are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.57 for AB Argir. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-1.

B68 Toftir vs AB Argir Prediction— Faroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin

Match Preview & Prediction

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