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Sogndal vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 18:00

Sogndal

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Egersund

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.1%0-23.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-03.3%1-16.6%1-26.7%1-34.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.5%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.5%3-15.2%3-25.2%3-33.5%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.6%4+-24.7%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 2.10 -7.6%

Draw 21.5% 3.80 -11.0%

Away win 34.5% 2.75 -5.1%

Over 2.5 72.1% 1.42 +2.4%

Over 3.5 52.2% 2.05 +7.0%

BTTS 68.6% 1.36 -6.7%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.67 +1.2%

Away Over 1.5 49.8% 1.93 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob68.6%

H 44% / xG 2.2-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal2.2

Egersund2.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 1.40

EGERSUND · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -7.6%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.0%

Egersund (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Egersund in Norway - 1. Division on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Egersund 35%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sogndal and 2.0 for Egersund (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Egersund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.4%.

Sogndal vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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