Today / Norway - 1. Division / Stromsgodset vs Odd

Stromsgodset vs Odd Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 16:00

Stromsgodset

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Odd

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.8%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.8%1-17.0%1-25.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.2%3-25.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-18.1%4+-25.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Draw 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Away win 23.2% 22.7% 4.40 +1.3%

Over 2.5 66.3% 73.5% 1.36 -9.8%

Over 3.5 48.3% 51.8% 1.93 -6.8%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Away O1.5 49.7% 42.0% 2.38 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stromsgodset2.5

Odd1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMSGODSET · PPG 3.00

ODD · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

Stromsgodset (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Odd (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stromsgodset face Odd in Norway - 1. Division on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stromsgodset a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Odd 23%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Stromsgodset and 1.5 for Odd (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stromsgodset are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Odd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Stromsgodset vs Odd Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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