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Strommen vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Strommen

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moss

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.2%0-24.3%0-33.9%0-4+5.1%1 1-02.0%1-15.5%1-27.5%1-36.8%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.5%2-35.9%2-4+7.7%3 3-01.0%3-12.8%3-23.8%3-33.4%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.8%4+-22.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 26.9% 2.50 -19.7%

Draw 19.9% 3.65 -16.4%

Away win 53.1% 2.35 +24.8%

Over 2.5 72.1% 1.48 +6.7%

Over 3.5 52.3% 2.20 +15.1%

BTTS 68.6% 1.42 -2.6%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.83 +27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob68.6%

A 53% / xG 1.7-2.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–3 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 1–1 5.5%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strommen1.7

Moss2.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMMEN · PPG 0.67

MOSS · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Strommen (H) 26.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.7%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -16.4%

Moss (A) 53.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strommen face Moss in Norway - 1. Division on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strommen a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Moss 53%, so Moss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Strommen and 2.7 for Moss (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strommen are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Moss. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +55.4%.

Strommen vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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