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Strommen vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Strommen

PPG 0.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stabaek

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.4%0-26.0%0-37.0%0-4+15.2%1 1-01.1%1-13.8%1-26.7%1-37.9%1-4+17.1%2 2-00.6%2-12.1%2-23.8%2-34.4%2-4+9.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.8%3-21.4%3-31.6%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 4.00 -29.8%

Draw 17.9% 3.85 -18.6%

Away win 69.5% 1.68 +16.8%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.45 +5.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 2.15 +14.4%

BTTS 61.7% 1.44 -11.2%

Win probability 1X2

Strommen (H) 12.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -29.8%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -18.6%

Stabaek (A) 69.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 5.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob61.7%

A 70% / xG 1.1-3.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 0–3 7.0%

#3 1–4 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 0–4 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strommen1.1

Stabaek3.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMMEN · PPG 0.20

STABAEK · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Strommen face Stabaek in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strommen a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Stabaek 70%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Strommen and 3.5 for Stabaek (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strommen are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Stabaek. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +57.4%.

Strommen vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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