Today / Norway - 1. Division / Raufoss vs Sogndal

Raufoss vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Raufoss

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogndal

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.2%0-23.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.2%1-16.7%1-27.0%1-34.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.4%2-17.1%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.4%3-14.9%3-25.1%3-33.5%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.2%4+-24.4%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 2.80 +8.1%

Draw 21.0% 3.70 -13.4%

Away win 40.4% 2.10 -15.2%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.42 +3.1%

Over 3.5 48.3% 2.05 -1.0%

BTTS 68.4% 1.36 -7.0%

Win probability 1X2

Raufoss (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +8.1%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.4%

Sogndal (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 5.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.4%

H 39% / xG 2.1-2.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raufoss2.1

Sogndal2.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.80

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away POOR (0.83)

Match Preview & Prediction

Raufoss face Sogndal in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raufoss a 39% chance, the draw 21% and Sogndal 40%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Raufoss and 2.1 for Sogndal (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raufoss are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.83 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Raufoss vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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