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Moss vs Sandnes Ulf Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Moss

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandnes Ulf

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.3%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.9%1-19.1%1-26.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.1%3-16.7%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.7%4+-23.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 1.85 -2.9%

Draw 22.1% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 25.4% 3.35 -8.9%

Over 2.5 64.8% 1.48 -4.1%

Over 3.5 42.4% 2.20 -6.7%

BTTS 63.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Sandnes Ulf (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 5.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.4%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss2.1

Sandnes Ulf1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 1.60

SANDNES ULF · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face Sandnes Ulf in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Sandnes Ulf 25%, so Moss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Moss and 1.3 for Sandnes Ulf (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Sandnes Ulf. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%.

Moss vs Sandnes Ulf Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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