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Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 19:30

Gil Vicente

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guimaraes

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+51.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-13.8%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-18.5%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-16.9%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-16.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.5% 47.2% 2.12 +51.6%

Draw 17.8% 30.3% 3.30 -41.3%

Away win 10.7% 29.9% 3.35 -64.2%

Over 2.5 56.3% 47.6% 2.10 +18.2%

Over 3.5 33.9% 26.3% 3.80 +28.8%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 72% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gil Vicente2.2

Guimaraes0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.93

GUIMARAES · PPG 0.79

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

55%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gil Vicente (H) 71.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +51.6%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -41.3%

Guimaraes (A) 10.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -64.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gil Vicente face Guimaraes in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gil Vicente a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Guimaraes 11%, so Gil Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gil Vicente and 0.7 for Guimaraes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gil Vicente are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.79 for Guimaraes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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