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Kongsvinger vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stromsgodset

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.5%0-23.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.9%1-18.6%1-27.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.0%3-15.2%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.9%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 40.0% 2.50 -1.5%

Draw 22.1% 26.0% 3.85 -8.9%

Away win 38.4% 43.5% 2.30 -11.7%

Over 2.5 65.9% 75.2% 1.33 -12.3%

Over 3.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

BTTS 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Home O1.5 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Away O1.5 50.8% 60.6% 1.65 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 39% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger1.9

Stromsgodset1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 3.00

STROMSGODSET · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=39.4%

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -1.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.9%

Stromsgodset (A) 38.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Stromsgodset in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 39% chance, the draw 22% and Stromsgodset 38%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kongsvinger and 1.8 for Stromsgodset (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Stromsgodset. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 4-4.

Kongsvinger vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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