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Egersund vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Egersund

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haugesund

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-14.0%0-25.4%0-34.8%0-4+6.2%1 1-02.2%1-16.0%1-28.1%1-37.3%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.7%2-14.6%2-26.2%2-35.6%2-4+7.2%3 3-00.9%3-12.3%3-23.1%3-32.8%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.7% 3.55 -15.9%

Draw 18.3% 3.75 -18.8%

Away win 61.0% 1.80 +9.8%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.44 +4.5%

Over 3.5 50.2% 2.05 +2.9%

BTTS 63.4% 1.38 -12.5%

Win probability 1X2

Egersund (H) 20.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.9%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -18.8%

Haugesund (A) 61.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 5.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.4%

A 61% / xG 1.5-2.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egersund1.5

Haugesund2.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EGERSUND · PPG 1.67

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Egersund face Haugesund in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egersund a 21% chance, the draw 18% and Haugesund 61%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Egersund and 2.7 for Haugesund (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egersund are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Haugesund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.6%.

Egersund vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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