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Ituano vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 23:30

Ituano

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Figueirense

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-18.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-111.9%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

Draw 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -9.0%

Away win 23.6% 26.0% 3.85 -5.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 43.4% 46.5% 2.15 -6.7%

Away O1.5 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0✓ 10.8%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano1.5

Figueirense0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 3.00

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -6.4%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Figueirense (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Figueirense 24%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ituano and 0.7 for Figueirense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Figueirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Ituano vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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