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Ituano vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 23:30

Ituano

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Figueirense

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-18.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-111.9%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 1.91 -6.4%

Draw 27.4% 3.10 -9.0%

Away win 23.6% 3.85 -5.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 2.20 +4.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 48.5% 1.93 -6.4%

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -6.4%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Figueirense (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0✓ 10.8%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano1.5

Figueirense0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 3.00

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Figueirense 24%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ituano and 0.7 for Figueirense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Figueirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Ituano vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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