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Ituano vs Barra Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 22:30

Ituano

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Barra

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-19.7%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-112.8%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 54.1% 1.85 -13.8%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Away win 25.8% 24.4% 4.10 +3.5%

Over 2.5 44.2% 40.0% 2.50 +10.5%

Over 3.5 22.8% 21.1% 4.75 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 46.5% 2.15 +4.1%

Home O1.5 37.4% 44.4% 2.25 -15.8%

Away O1.5 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 2–0✓ 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano1.3

Barra0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 2.00

BARRA · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -13.8%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Barra (A) 25.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Barra in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Barra 26%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ituano and 0.8 for Barra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Barra. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +36.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Ituano vs Barra Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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