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Ypiranga-RS vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Ypiranga-RS

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Floresta

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-110.5%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-113.1%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-18.1%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 54.6% 1.83 -16.0%

Draw 30.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.8%

Away win 23.7% 22.7% 4.40 +2.6%

Over 2.5 42.4% 40.0% 2.50 +6.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 22.2% 4.50 -0.6%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 34.6% 44.4% 2.25 -22.1%

Away O1.5 21.8% 23.1% 4.33 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ypiranga-RS1.2

Floresta0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YPIRANGA-RS · PPG 1.88

FLORESTA · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ypiranga-RS (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -16.0%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.8%

Floresta (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ypiranga-RS face Floresta in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ypiranga-RS a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Floresta 24%, so Ypiranga-RS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ypiranga-RS and 0.9 for Floresta (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ypiranga-RS are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.29 for Floresta. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +45.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Ypiranga-RS vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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