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AO Itabaiana vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

AO Itabaiana

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Caxias

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.2%0-115.6%0-26.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.7%1-112.9%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.9%2-15.3%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 39.2% 2.55 -5.4%

Draw 34.0% 33.9% 2.95 +0.3%

Away win 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Over 2.5 34.8% 40.0% 2.50 -13.0%

Over 3.5 18.1% 21.1% 4.75 -8.4%

BTTS 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.1% 2.85 -8.5%

Away O1.5 17.8% 33.3% 3.00 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.2%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 15.6%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AO Itabaiana0.8

Caxias0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AO ITABAIANA · PPG 1.14

CAXIAS · PPG 0.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 1.60 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AO Itabaiana (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -5.4%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +0.3%

Caxias (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AO Itabaiana face Caxias in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AO Itabaiana a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Caxias 29%, so AO Itabaiana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for AO Itabaiana and 0.8 for Caxias (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AO Itabaiana are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.86 for Caxias. This match finished 0-2.

AO Itabaiana vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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