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Botafogo PB vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Botafogo PB

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-110.9%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-17.8%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 27.5% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 27.0% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 33.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo PB1.2

Santa Cruz0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 2.14

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 1.99 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo PB (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santa Cruz (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo PB face Santa Cruz in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo PB a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Santa Cruz 27%, so Botafogo PB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Botafogo PB and 0.8 for Santa Cruz (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo PB are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.75 for Santa Cruz. This match finished 2-2.

Botafogo PB vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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