Today / Brazil - Serie C / Santa Cruz vs Ypiranga

Santa Cruz vs Ypiranga Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 22:00

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ypiranga

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-110.2%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.4%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-17.5%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.0%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 47.8% — —

Draw 29.3% — —

Away win 23.0% — —

Over 2.5 37.4% — —

Over 3.5 19.3% — —

BTTS 48.5% — —

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ypiranga (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1✓ 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz1.2

Ypiranga0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.75

YPIRANGA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=47.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Ypiranga in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Ypiranga 23%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Santa Cruz and 0.7 for Ypiranga (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Ypiranga. This match finished 0-1.

Santa Cruz vs Ypiranga Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions