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Botafogo PB vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 20:00

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Volta Redonda

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-113.8%0-25.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.2%2-16.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 51.3% 1.95 -29.0%

Draw 34.6% 33.9% 2.95 +2.1%

Away win 29.0% 25.3% 3.95 +8.7%

Over 2.5 35.8% 40.8% 2.45 -12.3%

Over 3.5 18.4% 22.2% 4.50 -10.3%

BTTS 47.8% 48.8% 2.05 -2.0%

Home O1.5 32.7% 43.5% 2.30 -24.8%

Away O1.5 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

D 35% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo PB0.9

Volta Redonda0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.50

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo PB (H) 36.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -29.0%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +2.1%

Volta Redonda (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo PB face Volta Redonda in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo PB a 36% chance, the draw 35% and Volta Redonda 29%, so Botafogo PB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Botafogo PB and 0.7 for Volta Redonda (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo PB are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Volta Redonda. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Botafogo PB vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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