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Anapolis vs Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 19:30

Anapolis

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Itabaiana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-114.3%0-25.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.3%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.5%2-16.1%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.3%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 2.10 -16.6%

Draw 32.8% 2.95 -3.2%

Away win 27.5% 3.55 -1.4%

Over 2.5 35.8% 2.20 -21.2%

Over 3.5 18.4% 4.00 -15.8%

BTTS 47.8% 1.85 -11.6%

Win probability 1X2

Anapolis (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.6%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -3.2%

Itabaiana (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.8%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anapolis0.9

Itabaiana0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANAPOLIS · PPG 1.25

ITABAIANA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Anapolis face Itabaiana in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anapolis a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Itabaiana 28%, so Anapolis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Anapolis and 0.8 for Itabaiana (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anapolis are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Itabaiana. This match finished 2-0.

Anapolis vs Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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