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Thun vs FC Basel Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:30

Thun

PPG 2.19 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Basel

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.9%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.6%1-25.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.2%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.8%4+-24.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% 54.1% 1.85 +13.0%

Draw 19.7% 24.4% 4.10 -19.2%

Away win 19.2% 28.2% 3.55 -31.8%

Over 2.5 66.5% 71.4% 1.40 -6.9%

Over 3.5 44.7% 50.0% 2.00 -10.6%

BTTS 62.1% 72.5% 1.38 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 61% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 7.3%

#5 3–1✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thun2.2

FC Basel1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

THUN · PPG 2.19

FC BASEL · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Thun (H) 61.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +13.0%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -19.2%

FC Basel (A) 19.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thun face FC Basel in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thun a 61% chance, the draw 20% and FC Basel 19%, so Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Thun and 1.2 for FC Basel (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thun are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.63 for FC Basel. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Thun vs FC Basel Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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