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FC Vaduz vs Lausanne Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

FC Vaduz

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

Lausanne

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.4%1-110.3%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.0%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

Draw 23.8% 27.0% 3.70 -7.2%

Away win 29.8% 38.2% 2.62 -13.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 45.5% 2.20 -11.6%

BTTS 62.1% 71.4% 1.40 -13.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Vaduz1.8

Lausanne1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC VADUZ · PPG 1.50

LAUSANNE · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Vaduz (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.2%

Lausanne (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Vaduz face Lausanne in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Vaduz a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Lausanne 30%, so FC Vaduz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Vaduz and 1.4 for Lausanne (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Vaduz are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.23 for Lausanne. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +9.3%.

FC Vaduz vs Lausanne Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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