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FC Sion vs FC Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:30

FC Sion

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

UPCOMING

FC Thun

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.5%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-26.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.3%3-16.6%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.3%4+-24.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 58.8% 1.70 -13.5%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +11.1%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 42.0% 2.38 +14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Sion2.2

FC Thun1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SION · PPG 1.81

FC THUN · PPG 1.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Sion (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

FC Thun (A) 28.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Sion face FC Thun in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Sion a 51% chance, the draw 21% and FC Thun 28%, so FC Sion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Sion and 1.5 for FC Thun (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Sion are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.87 for FC Thun. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.1%.

FC Sion vs FC Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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