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Tychy vs LKS Lodz Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:30

Tychy

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

LKS Lodz

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.6%0-27.0%0-34.9%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.2%1-18.9%1-29.4%1-36.6%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.0%2-26.4%2-34.5%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-22.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -25.0%

Draw 20.9% 32.3% 3.10 -35.2%

Away win 54.9% 47.6% 2.10 +15.3%

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 65.3% 57.8% 1.73 +13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob65.3%

A 55% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 0–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tychy1.4

LKS Lodz2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TYCHY · PPG 0.50

LKS LODZ · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Tychy (H) 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -25.0%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -35.2%

LKS Lodz (A) 54.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tychy face LKS Lodz in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tychy a 24% chance, the draw 21% and LKS Lodz 55%, so LKS Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tychy and 2.1 for LKS Lodz (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tychy are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.43 for LKS Lodz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Tychy vs LKS Lodz Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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