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Puszcza Niepolo vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:30

Puszcza Niepolo

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.0%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.6%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.5%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 44.4% 2.25 -5.3%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.2%

Away win 31.5% 34.7% 2.88 -9.3%

Over 2.5 47.1% — — —

Over 3.5 25.5% — — —

BTTS 51.7% 59.9% 1.67 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.7%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1✓ 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puszcza Niepolo1.4

Polonia Bytom1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSZCZA NIEPOLO · PPG 1.29

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Puszcza Niepolo (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.2%

Polonia Bytom (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puszcza Niepolo face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puszcza Niepolo a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Polonia Bytom 32%, so Puszcza Niepolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Puszcza Niepolo and 1.2 for Polonia Bytom (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puszcza Niepolo are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.17 for Polonia Bytom. This match finished 2-1.

Puszcza Niepolo vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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