Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 30 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior· Rio Maior Saturday, April 18, 2026 17:00

Casa Pia PPG 1.00

0-0 HIT CS4

Santa Clara PPG 0.79

Home· +45.8% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Santa Clara in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Santa Clara 32%, so Casa Pia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Casa Pia and 1.1 for Santa Clara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.79 for Santa Clara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.5%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +45.8%

Draw 28.0%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -11.8%

Away 31.5%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -33.9%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.3% Odds: 2.45 +1.2%

Over 3.5 20.8% Odds: 4.75 -1.2%

BTTS 47.2% Odds: 2.10 -0.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✔

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia

1.26

Santa Clara

1.07

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.79)