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Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:00

Casa Pia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Santa Clara

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.4%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.2%1-113.1%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 27.8% 3.60 +45.8%

Draw 28.0% 31.7% 3.15 -11.8%

Away win 31.5% 47.6% 2.10 -33.9%

Over 2.5 41.3% 40.8% 2.45 +1.2%

Over 3.5 20.8% 21.1% 4.75 -1.2%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–0✓ 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casa Pia1.3

Santa Clara1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CASA PIA · PPG 1.00

SANTA CLARA · PPG 0.79

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

47%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Casa Pia (H) 40.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +45.8%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -11.8%

Santa Clara (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Santa Clara in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Santa Clara 32%, so Casa Pia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Casa Pia and 1.1 for Santa Clara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.79 for Santa Clara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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