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Reipas vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 13:30

Reipas

PPG 2.50 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Union Plaani

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.8%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.3%1-13.1%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.2%2-15.9%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-17.5%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-020.5%4+-119.4%4+-29.2%4+-32.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 82.0% 1.22 -18.6%

Draw 18.7% 17.2% 5.80 +5.1%

Away win 14.7% 12.5% 8.00 +10.6%

Over 2.5 67.9% 83.3% 1.20 -18.5%

Over 3.5 47.5% 66.7% 1.50 -28.7%

BTTS 56.2% 71.4% 1.40 -21.3%

Home O1.5 77.8% 85.5% 1.17 -9.0%

Away O1.5 26.6% 36.4% 2.75 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob56.2%

H 67% / xG 3.8-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 7.9%

#2 4–0 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reipas3.8

Union Plaani0.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REIPAS · PPG 2.50

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Reipas (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -18.6%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +5.1%

Union Plaani (A) 14.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reipas face Union Plaani in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reipas a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Union Plaani 15%, so Reipas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Reipas and 0.9 for Union Plaani (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reipas are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Union Plaani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 4-2.

Reipas vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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