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Sitra vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:35

Sitra

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Khalidiya

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-117.7%0-215.6%0-39.1%0-4+6.0%1 1-05.4%1-19.5%1-28.4%1-34.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-01.4%2-12.6%2-22.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.7% 15.4% 6.50 -30.4%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.5%

Away win 67.3% 69.4% 1.44 -3.1%

Over 2.5 40.3% — — —

Over 3.5 20.0% — — —

BTTS 34.4% 51.3% 1.95 -32.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob34.4%

A 67% / xG 0.5-1.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.7%

#2 0–2 15.6%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sitra0.5

Khalidiya1.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SITRA · PPG 1.25

KHALIDIYA · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Sitra (H) 10.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -30.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -17.5%

Khalidiya (A) 67.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sitra face Khalidiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sitra a 11% chance, the draw 22% and Khalidiya 67%, so Khalidiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Sitra and 1.8 for Khalidiya (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sitra are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 3.00 for Khalidiya. This match finished 1-3.

Sitra vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bahrain - Premier League Predictions