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Nizhny Novgorod vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.7%0-27.6%0-34.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.9%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 21.7% 4.60 +28.3%

Draw 23.7% 25.4% 3.94 -6.6%

Away win 48.5% 56.2% 1.78 -13.7%

Over 2.5 57.3% 53.8% 1.86 +6.6%

Over 3.5 34.9% 33.9% 2.95 +2.9%

BTTS 58.8% 57.1% 1.75 +2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.8%

A 48% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 8.7%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nizhny Novgorod1.3

Dinamo Moscow1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 1.17

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Nizhny Novgorod (H) 27.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +28.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -6.6%

Dinamo Moscow (A) 48.5%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nizhny Novgorod face Dinamo Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Dinamo Moscow 49%, so Dinamo Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.7 for Dinamo Moscow (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Dinamo Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Nizhny Novgorod vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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