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Nacional Potosi vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Friday, June 12, 2026, 23:00

Nacional Potosi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Oruro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.0%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.3%1-19.9%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.4%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.0%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 73.5% 1.36 -31.5%

Draw 22.6% 19.6% 5.10 +9.2%

Away win 27.0% 16.7% 6.00 +37.2%

Over 2.5 64.2% 75.2% 1.33 -14.6%

Over 3.5 39.8% 54.1% 1.85 -26.4%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 59.1% 78.1% 1.28 -24.3%

Away O1.5 32.9% 34.5% 2.90 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Potosi2.0

Real Oruro1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL POTOSI · PPG 2.00

REAL ORURO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Potosi (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -31.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +9.2%

Real Oruro (A) 27.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Potosi face Real Oruro in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Potosi a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Real Oruro 27%, so Nacional Potosi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nacional Potosi and 1.2 for Real Oruro (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Potosi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Real Oruro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.2%.

Nacional Potosi vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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