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Bolívar vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:15

Bolívar

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Potosí

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.3%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-112.1%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolívar1.5

Real Potosí0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLÍVAR · PPG 2.00

REAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bolívar (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Potosí (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolívar face Real Potosí in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolívar a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Real Potosí 20%, so Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bolívar and 0.8 for Real Potosí (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolívar are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Real Potosí.

Bolívar vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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