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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 19:00

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-19.7%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.5%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 59.5% 1.68 -8.9%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.0% 45.5% 2.20 -12.0%

BTTS 62.5% 69.0% 1.45 -9.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 65.4% 1.53 -14.8%

Away O1.5 36.9% 39.2% 2.55 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

ROI 36.6%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gualberto Villarroel SJ2.0

Universitario de Vinto1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 1.00

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

Universitario de Vinto (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gualberto Villarroel SJ face Universitario de Vinto in Bolivia - Primera División on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gualberto Villarroel SJ a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Universitario de Vinto 24%, so Gualberto Villarroel SJ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ and 1.2 for Universitario de Vinto (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gualberto Villarroel SJ are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Universitario de Vinto. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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