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Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:30

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oriente Petrolero

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.7%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.4%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 22.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 26.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero1.7

Oriente Petrolero0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.40

ORIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 52.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Oriente Petrolero (A) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Oriente Petrolero in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Oriente Petrolero 23%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Independiente Petrolero and 0.9 for Oriente Petrolero (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.20 for Oriente Petrolero.

Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions