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Tuggeranong Utd vs Monaro Panthers Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 09:30

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Monaro Panthers

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.9%0-21.2%0-30.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-01.2%1-12.9%1-23.6%1-32.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-01.9%2-14.6%2-25.6%2-34.5%2-4+5.0%3 3-01.9%3-14.7%3-25.8%3-34.7%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-18.0%4+-29.8%4+-38.0%4+-4+8.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 20.0% 5.00 +156.0%

Draw 19.3% 23.1% 4.33 -9.9%

Away win 29.5% 69.4% 1.44 -34.5%

Over 2.5 80.9% 76.9% 1.30 +5.2%

Over 3.5 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

BTTS 67.7% 73.5% 1.36 -7.9%

Home O1.5 76.0% 42.0% 2.38 +80.9%

Away O1.5 67.9% 80.0% 1.25 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob67.7%

H 51% / xG 3.1-2.4 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.8%

#2 2–2 5.6%

#3 3–1 4.7%

#4 3–3 4.7%

#5 2–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuggeranong Utd3.1

Monaro Panthers2.4

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 2.50

MONARO PANTHERS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=51.2%

Win probability 1X2

Tuggeranong Utd (H) 51.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +156.0%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.9%

Monaro Panthers (A) 29.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuggeranong Utd face Monaro Panthers in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuggeranong Utd a 51% chance, the draw 19% and Monaro Panthers 30%, so Tuggeranong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Tuggeranong Utd and 2.4 for Monaro Panthers (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuggeranong Utd are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Monaro Panthers. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +231.5%. This match finished 1-6.

Tuggeranong Utd vs Monaro Panthers Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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