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Malmo FF W vs Vaxjo W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 13:00

Malmo FF W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vaxjo W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.8%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.3%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-16.8%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 80.0% 1.25 -28.7%

Draw 21.6% 20.0% 5.00 +4.8%

Away win 21.4% 11.1% 9.00 +55.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

BTTS 55.3% 57.8% 1.73 -4.3%

Home O1.5 65.3% 76.9% 1.30 -15.1%

Away O1.5 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.8%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.3%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF W2.2

Vaxjo W0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF W · PPG 2.00

VAXJO W · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF W (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -28.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.8%

Vaxjo W (A) 21.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +55.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF W face Vaxjo W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF W a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Vaxjo W 21%, so Malmo FF W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Malmo FF W and 0.9 for Vaxjo W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Vaxjo W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Malmo FF W vs Vaxjo W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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