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Nacional vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:30

Nacional

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alverca

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 45.9% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.8%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.2%1-111.5%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 45.9% 2.18 +14.9%

Draw 24.2% 29.0% 3.45 -16.5%

Away win 23.1% 32.3% 3.10 -28.4%

Over 2.5 50.9% 54.6% 1.83 -6.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0✓ 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.7

Alverca1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.00

ALVERCA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +14.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.5%

Alverca (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Alverca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Alverca 23%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nacional and 1.0 for Alverca (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Alverca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Nacional vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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